Volatility on Exness: Where the Average Ends and a Single Day Begins (the Philippines)
An average is a statement about days that have already happened. It supports questions about how often and how far apart; it does not support a question about the next session, and no single day settles it either way.
Open Exness Account →A table of average daily ranges is a summary of days that have already been observed. It answers questions of the form how often, how typical and how far apart, and it answers them about that set of days and no other. It cannot answer whether the next session will be wide or quiet, because no property of a finished sample carries a claim about a day that has not happened. The same limit runs in the other direction: a single unusually large or unusually small day is a member of the set rather than a verdict on it, so it neither refutes the average nor confirms it.
The observed set of days, summarised
| Instrument | ADR (14 sessions) | ADR (50 sessions) | Regime | Realized vol (ann.) | Avg weekend gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 42.5 pips | 43.5 pips | steady (0.98) | 4.01% | 0.3 pips |
| GBP/USD | 50.5 pips | 58.8 pips | contracting (0.86) | 4.74% | 0.3 pips |
| USD/JPY | 101.6 pips | 96.6 pips | steady (1.05) | 8.15% | 0.2 pips |
| AUD/USD | 36.4 pips | 37.1 pips | steady (0.98) | 5.27% | 0.2 pips |
| USD/CAD | 59.6 pips | 50.4 pips | expanding (1.18) | 3.73% | 0.2 pips |
| USD/CHF | 51 pips | 49 pips | steady (1.04) | 6.63% | 0.1 pips |
| NZD/USD | 40.3 pips | 38.3 pips | steady (1.05) | 6.66% | 0.2 pips |
| EUR/GBP | 18.8 pips | 20.6 pips | contracting (0.91) | 2.68% | 0.1 pips |
| EUR/JPY | 89.8 pips | 91.8 pips | steady (0.98) | 6.95% | 0.3 pips |
| GBP/JPY | 114.6 pips | 119 pips | steady (0.96) | 7.49% | 0.5 pips |
| AUD/JPY | 69 pips | 70.1 pips | steady (0.98) | 7.43% | 0.1 pips |
| XAU/USD (Gold) | $104.35 | $84.91 | expanding (1.23) | 23.35% | $0.10 |
| XAG/USD (Silver) | $2.45 | $2.22 | expanding (1.10) | 35.79% | $0.01 |
| US Oil (WTI) | $2.71 | $3.05 | contracting (0.89) | 41.97% | $0.00 |
| UK Oil (Brent) | $3.00 | $3.28 | contracting (0.91) | 51.83% | $1.96 |
| BTC/USD | $2,985.47 | $1,952.70 | expanding (1.53) | 32.2% | $2.05 |
| ETH/USD | $116.21 | $78.69 | expanding (1.48) | 47.57% | $0.10 |
| US500 (S&P 500) | 61.6 pts | 68.6 pts | contracting (0.90) | 10.08% | 0.2 pts |
| US30 (Dow) | 439.9 pts | 483.8 pts | contracting (0.91) | 10.25% | 1.2 pts |
| USTEC (Nasdaq 100) | 386.5 pts | 482.2 pts | contracting (0.80) | 19.31% | 0.6 pts |
| DE30 (DAX) | 224.4 pts | 269.6 pts | contracting (0.83) | 11.75% | 5.7 pts |
| JP225 (Nikkei 225) | 1,414.6 pts | 1,723.9 pts | contracting (0.82) | 27.01% | 6.7 pts |
| UK100 (FTSE 100) | 84.9 pts | 101.6 pts | contracting (0.84) | 9.08% | 10.4 pts |
ADR is the mean of the daily high–low across the window; the regime column sets a short window against a longer one. Both describe the days that were observed — neither is a statement about the session that has not started yet.
What one lot moved on a typical observed day
| Instrument | ADR | Value of 1 pip/pt ($/lot) | Typical daily swing per lot |
|---|---|---|---|
| XAG/USD (Silver) | $2.45 | $50.00 | $12,240 |
| XAU/USD (Gold) | $104.35 | $1.00 | $10,435 |
| UK Oil (Brent) | $3.00 | $10.00 | $2,998 |
| BTC/USD | $2,985.47 | $0.01 | $2,985 |
| US Oil (WTI) | $2.71 | $10.00 | $2,705 |
| GBP/JPY | 114.6 pips | $6.40 | $733 |
| USD/JPY | 101.6 pips | $6.40 | $650 |
| USD/CHF | 51 pips | $12.37 | $631 |
| EUR/JPY | 89.8 pips | $6.40 | $574 |
| GBP/USD | 50.5 pips | $10.00 | $505 |
| AUD/JPY | 69 pips | $6.40 | $441 |
| US30 (Dow) | 439.9 pts | $0.10 | $440 |
| USD/CAD | 59.6 pips | $7.25 | $432 |
| EUR/USD | 42.5 pips | $10.00 | $425 |
| NZD/USD | 40.3 pips | $10.00 | $403 |
| USTEC (Nasdaq 100) | 386.5 pts | $0.01 | $386 |
| AUD/USD | 36.4 pips | $10.00 | $364 |
| DE30 (DAX) | 224.4 pts | $0.116 | $261 |
| EUR/GBP | 18.8 pips | $13.54 | $255 |
| ETH/USD | $116.21 | $0.01 | $116 |
| UK100 (FTSE 100) | 84.9 pts | $0.0135 | $115 |
| US500 (S&P 500) | 61.6 pts | $0.01 | $62 |
| JP225 (Nikkei 225) | 1,414.6 pts | $0.00064 | $9 |
The same ‘1 lot’ carries very different risk across instruments: in this sample a lot of XAG/USD (Silver) swings about $12,240 on a typical day versus $9 for JP225 (Nikkei 225) — roughly 1,352× the daily exposure. Position size compares fairly only when it is set from the dollar swing, which is what the lot size calculator does.
The same set of days, cut by weekday
| Instrument | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 45.2 pips | 41.4 pips | 55.7 pips | 54.8 pips | 56.9 pips |
| GBP/USD | 59.8 pips | 53.8 pips | 80.3 pips | 72.7 pips | 62.9 pips |
| USD/JPY | 89.1 pips | 61.6 pips | 88.2 pips | 162.5 pips | 113 pips |
| AUD/USD | 35.3 pips | 44.4 pips | 42.3 pips | 41.6 pips | 44.7 pips |
| USD/CAD | 51.9 pips | 54.5 pips | 64.6 pips | 53.5 pips | 56.9 pips |
| USD/CHF | 45.4 pips | 40.9 pips | 60.4 pips | 63.3 pips | 50.4 pips |
| NZD/USD | 33.1 pips | 42.9 pips | 50.5 pips | 44.4 pips | 39.5 pips |
| EUR/GBP | 22.5 pips | 21.1 pips | 32 pips | 21.3 pips | 20.8 pips |
| EUR/JPY | 99.8 pips | 64 pips | 92.4 pips | 140.6 pips | 109.3 pips |
| GBP/JPY | 130.6 pips | 78.3 pips | 132.3 pips | 179.1 pips | 126.8 pips |
| AUD/JPY | 70.9 pips | 71.7 pips | 66.2 pips | 96.3 pips | 77.5 pips |
| XAU/USD (Gold) | $73.91 | $95.88 | $123.52 | $96.70 | $99.78 |
| XAG/USD (Silver) | $1.97 | $2.79 | $2.94 | $2.60 | $2.66 |
| US Oil (WTI) | $3.30 | $3.87 | $2.93 | $3.22 | $2.74 |
| UK Oil (Brent) | $3.16 | $3.95 | $3.24 | $3.29 | $2.81 |
| BTC/USD | $2,317.99 | $1,959.89 | $1,993.32 | $2,295.60 | $2,789.66 |
| ETH/USD | $82.92 | $71.68 | $108.48 | $75.44 | $90.70 |
| US500 (S&P 500) | 69.7 pts | 80.8 pts | 78.6 pts | 91.4 pts | 70.1 pts |
| US30 (Dow) | 469.0 pts | 592.3 pts | 611.9 pts | 617.8 pts | 460.4 pts |
| USTEC (Nasdaq 100) | 525.9 pts | 628.5 pts | 535.8 pts | 649.1 pts | 467.0 pts |
| DE30 (DAX) | 279.7 pts | 346.5 pts | 306.7 pts | 338.1 pts | 294.6 pts |
| JP225 (Nikkei 225) | 1,843.6 pts | 2,313.4 pts | 2,117.7 pts | 1,870.0 pts | 1,930.9 pts |
| UK100 (FTSE 100) | 93.8 pts | 114.0 pts | 116.4 pts | 141.8 pts | 116.1 pts |
Each column here summarises a smaller set of days than the table above it, so the gaps between columns are weaker statements rather than sharper ones.
How this was measured
- Daily ranges, gaps and closes read from D1 history on Exness's own MT5 feed.
- Realized volatility annualized from close-to-close daily returns.
- Dollar swing per lot = ADR × the contract's per-pip value from the symbol specification.
- A past range describes the days it was taken from and makes no claim about the next one; figures refresh on a schedule.
Measured in-terminal on Exness’s own MetaTrader 5 pricing feed and symbol specifications, refreshed on a schedule. All figures are indicative and change with market conditions.
Open Exness Account →Questions a summary can take
Three shapes of question are answerable from a table like the ones above. How typical is a value, which is a comparison against the middle of the set. How far apart the days sit, which is the width of the set and a fact quite separate from the middle — an average quoted with no width beside it is half a sentence. And how one slice compares with another, a shorter window against a longer one or one instrument against a second, because both sides of such a comparison are summaries of the same kind.
What these have in common is that each is a question about the set. Every one of them can be checked by going back to the days the summary was built from, and every one of them keeps its answer for as long as nobody adds a new day to the window.
Questions it cannot take, in principle
Whether the next session will be wide is not a harder question of the same kind; it is a different kind of question. A summary describes events that finished happening, and a forecast asserts something about an event that has not happened yet. No amount of description turns into an assertion of that second kind, and the gap is not closed by a longer window — a longer window describes more finished days, which is all it does.
Two smaller questions inherit the same defect. Whether a particular move was allowed: a mean is not a ceiling, and a day above it is not irregular, it is simply above the middle, which is where roughly half of any set lives. And whether a quiet stretch is owed a violent one: a set keeps no balance and carries no obligation for its future members to compensate for its past ones.
Why one exceptional day settles nothing
A single value cannot contradict an average, because the average never claimed that any particular day would land near it. A set whose middle is modest can contain very large members, and describing how large is exactly what a measure of spread is for. The record day and the dead-quiet day are both members of the set, and membership is not disagreement.
Confirmation fails for the same reason. A day that lands close to the middle does not verify the summary either, because the summary was not a prediction that it would. Only another set can agree or disagree with a set: many more days, gathered the same way, would move the description. One day is a data point being added to a window, not a test being passed or failed.
Turning a question about tomorrow into one this page can answer
- Write the question down in the form it was first asked, which is usually will it be.
- Replace the future tense with a frequency: how often, across the observed days, a value of this size appeared.
- Add the width to the middle: how far the days sit from each other, not only where their centre is.
- State the set explicitly — which instrument, which window — because a summary means nothing apart from the set it summarises.
- Read the answer as a description of those days, and stop there rather than extending it forward by one session.
- If the rewritten question no longer resembles the original, the original was not answerable from this kind of table, and that is itself the finding.
The rewriting is the whole exercise: nothing here calls for a different table, only for a differently shaped question.
Which questions these tables can take
| Question as it is usually asked | Answerable here | Why |
|---|---|---|
| How often a day this wide occurred | Yes | It is a count over the observed set |
| How far apart the days sit | Yes | Spread is a property of the set |
| Whether the recent stretch differs from the longer one | Yes | Two summaries of the same kind, compared |
| Whether today will be wide | No | A finished sample carries no claim about a future member |
| Whether yesterday was abnormal for exceeding the average | No | A mean is a middle, not a limit |
| Whether a quiet week is owed a violent one | No | A set keeps no balance that has to be settled |
The right-hand column is about the shape of the question, not about the quality of the data behind it.
What one exceptional day does and does not do
| Reading of a single extreme day | Status |
|---|---|
| It disproves the average | No: one member cannot contradict a summary |
| It shows the average was set too low | No: one value is not a set |
| It belongs in the set | Yes: extremes are members, not exceptions to membership |
| It changes the summary once it enters the window | Slightly, by one day out of the whole window |
| It indicates what the next day will do | No: the same limit applies to it as well |